Many Predictions, Only One Future

Future timeline (cropped)This XKCD cartoon places many predictions on the same timeline (click through for the full version—it's much too long to include here). This is what I mean by only one future: all predictions have to happen (or not) in the same future. If they're mutually inconsistent, then somebody's wrong.

More and more, I find myself applying this filter when I hear or read some breathless prediction of fantastic technological breakthroughs that are supposed to be just ahead. We have a lot of predictions floating around, and I'm pretty sure some of them are wrong.


About Nathan Gilliatt

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  • Voracious learner and explorer. Analyst tracking technologies and markets in intelligence, analytics and social media. Advisor to buyers, sellers and investors. Writing my next book.
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